Pakistan’s disaster authorities have issued a high-level flood warning as heavy monsoon rains and India’s planned water release from the Madhopur Dam threaten to push river levels to dangerous heights over the next 48 hours.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) confirmed that India has filled the Thein Dam (Ranjit Sagar Dam) to 86% of its capacity following days of torrential rain in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Indian-administered Kashmir. Any large-scale release, the NDMA warned, could sharply increase flood risk downstream in Pakistan’s Punjab region.
Rivers Swelling Across Punjab, Northern Pakistan
Water levels in major rivers are already rising. The Ravi River at Kot Nainan is flowing at 64,000 cusecs, and flood levels at Jassar are expected to worsen within 24 hours. The Chenab River near Marala could reach medium-to-high flood levels, while the Sutlej at Ganda Singhwala may hit severe flood thresholds.
Smaller tributaries—including the Eik, Deg, Basantar, Ben, and Palkho rivers in the Pir Panjal range—are also swelling rapidly, raising concerns of flash floods.
Authorities have identified low-lying districts including Sialkot, Narowal, and Kasur as particularly vulnerable, urging residents to avoid travel near waterways and prepare for potential evacuations.
Human Toll of Monsoon Rains Mounts
The warning comes as Pakistan continues to grapple with weeks of devastating monsoon damage. Since June 26, floods and rain-related disasters have killed at least 799 people and injured 1,080 others.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has suffered the highest losses with 489 fatalities, followed by 165 in Punjab, 55 in Sindh, and 24 in Balochistan. Northern areas have also been hit hard, with 45 deaths in Gilgit-Baltistan and 23 in Azad Kashmir. Over 7,100 homes have been damaged, and more than 5,500 livestock lost.
Forecast: More Rain to Compound Crisis
The Meteorological Department has warned that the monsoon is far from over:
- Kashmir, northeast Punjab: Heavy to torrential downpours expected.
- Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, south Punjab: Scattered showers likely.
- Balochistan: Rain forecast in northeastern and southern regions.
The NDMA has placed emergency teams on standby and instructed provincial authorities to prepare evacuation plans and flood response measures.
